As the saying goes… “it’s better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air, than in the air wishing you were on the ground”

In our case, ‘better to be at Base Camp wishing you were on the mountain, than on the mountain, wishing you were at Base Camp’ which I’m guessing is what a few climbers are feeling right now up high on the hill as a big storm is rolling through.

While it’s easy to feel frustrated when a forecast of ‘potential events’ puts paid to your plans (especially when you’re tromping back down the mountain on what feels like a pretty clear, sunny day yesterday approaching the pointy end of a life long goal, like standing on the roof of the world) but weather and Mt. Everest is a serious thing not to be underestimated.

We made the decision to pull our entire team back to Base Camp yesterday for a few reasons:

1) Firstly, our climbers’ (Clients and Sherpa) safety ALWAYS comes first. That is why there is contingency room in the schedule for unexpected weather events like this.

2) Secondly, if the team are going to have to wait out weather anywhere (in this instance, either at Camp 2 or at Base Camp) we’re always going to favour Base Camp, for 2 important reasons;
– Waiting at 6,500m (to which they are already acclimatised) could mean their strength deteriorates by spending excessive time there vs resetting with good food, amenities and comfort allowing for better rest at lower altitudes.

– There is a lower objective risk in the relatively protected bowl of Base Camp if you are staying for a few days, and the snowfall and high winds are mainly predicted at altitudes near Camp 2 and above. Being tent bound for days is unpleasant at the best of times and unfortunately we’re already hearing reports of other teams’ camps being blown away and tents being lost (Our camps will be fine with our CTSS crew having broken them down and safely cached and stored all our equipment to safeguard against losses before the storm)

So what’s actually happening?

A severe tropical cyclone (Cyclone Fani – which at the time of writing is in the territory of a category 4 storm) is present in the Bay of Bengal and is looking to make landfall today along the coastline of Odisha, with gale force winds up to 200km/s an hour. Nearly a million people have been evacuated (India’s largest evacuation operation). While the immediate threat to the people of India and Bangladesh need to be the world’s focus right now and they are centre in our thoughts and hearts, this event does have implications for our teams climbing on Everest because of something called ‘orographic’ lift – where mountains lift moisture-laden air rapidly, cooling the air quickly and causing cloud and precipitation.

In other words, likely high winds and heavy snowfall over the next few days for us. The ultimate track of the storm will determine how much we see of this. Currently, the latest model output shows the cyclone moving Northwards along the Southeastern flank of India arriving in Bangladesh on the 4th of May. As it tracks overland, it will decay and push that moist, relatively warm air towards the Southern slopes of the Himalayas. We can already see this weather pattern developing for us today (the 3rd May) and it should last approximately 24-36 hours before the moisture moves off to the East and the sun pops out almost as fast as it disappeared.

Unfortunately, the hangover could leave some strong winds above 7,000m for about a week which could delay the rope fixers (who have fixed up to the South Col) but following that the air mass looks relatively stable and dry.

We absolutely made the right call and if the forecasts ring true, our teams should be able to resume climbing in a few days when it is safe to do so.

Remember, we still have almost a month of time to play with, and patience is apparently a virtue. (An annoying one to practice, but a virtue nonetheless)

Cheers
Caroline

*Featured photo: Marisha McDowell